As we enter the Winter we are in the midst of a ‘second wave’ of Covid-19. The pandemic has changed the World in ways which we cannot even imagine and it has taken a huge toll on every sector of the economy, not least the care sector which has been the target of both criticism and praise. As providers brace themselves for the months ahead, what does the future hold for social care?
Changing perceptions
The ‘Clap for Carers’ ritual showed the public’s appreciation for the vital role which social care plays alongside the NHS. However, at the same time there was criticism of the sector as it asked the NHS for help obtaining PPE; and some care homes suffered significant numbers of resident deaths due to the infection – Public Health England estimates that 44% of registered care homes experienced an outbreak. How the sector will be perceived by the general public in the future, and how this will be seen in changes to occupancy, staff vacancies, and funding, remains unknown.
Staffing
The UK entered a recession in August 2020 and the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report for November 2020 forecast that it could reach 7.7% in April to June 20211. This has created an opportunity for the care sector, which has struggled with significant vacancies for many years. Skills for Care said that the adult social care vacancy rate in England fell by a fifth during the height of the Covid-19 crisis, in part because of falling demand for services, but also undoubtedly because staff who were either furloughed or made redundant in other sectors become carers. Providers can only hope that more new staff enter social care as the unemployment rate rises.
Rising Costs
The rising costs of PPE and agency staff during the pandemic have now been compounded by rising insurance costs. The National Care Association surveyed its members on this subject, with 68% reporting an increase in their premium and 93.5% stating that there was no provision for Covid-19 in their renewal. This is a significant issue for the sector, as it will leave providers less profitable and potentially unable to trade.
Funding
The future funding of the sector is a discussion, which has been delayed many times by the Government and, with Brexit negotiations compounding pressures from the Pandemic, is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. The Infection Control Fund has been renewed until March 2021 with an additional £546m of funding. This critical funding has been a lifeline for providers by giving them vital resources to minimise the movement of staff, including the funding to provide staff with their full salary whilst self-isolating for 14 days, and to enable the exclusive use of agency and specialist staff who would otherwise move between services.
Opportunity knocks…
But it isn’t all bad news. In addition to the potential reduction in vacancies presented by higher general unemployment, the pandemic has forced many providers to embrace technology and therefore find new and better ways of delivering care. At LaingBuisson’s virtual conference earlier this year, leaders in the sector said a greater use of technology in social care will be “one of the good things” to come out of the pandemic, with providers switching from paper to digital forms and less resistance to change as carers can see that digital processes were safer.
Within care homes, many of whom had been using some kind of technology before the pandemic, lockdown brought new challenges which they were able to overcome digitally. Residents were able to communicate with their families using a variety of mediums such as FaceTime, WhatsApp, Microsoft Teams and Zoom; whilst prospective residents and their families could visit homes online using Virtual Tours. Medical professionals could also carry out some visits ‘virtually’.
The long-term benefits of this are obvious, as the use of technology will make the provision of social care more efficient and effective. With current market offerings being fragmented it makes it unaffordable for providers to utilise technology to its fullest potential. However, PredicAire’s new holistic care technology software product will not only be affordable but it will enable Ai to support staff in every part of care home life, from activities to care, nutrition, evidencing and staffing. Using better data – collected through PredicAire’s digital tools will predict and prevent issues before they arise, allowing staff to deliver better outcomes for their residents.
No-one knows what the coming months will hold for the sector and the country as a whole, although the imminent arrival of vaccines has increased optimism that the end of the pandemic may be in sight. What is certain is that with an ageing population, social care will always be required. Regardless of any decisions made by Government on the future funding of the sector, providers with the vision to grasp the opportunities the pandemic has given will be at a strong advantage over their competitors.
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